England have less chance of winning the Fifa World Cup than Peru, according to sports data company Gracenote.
The Peruvians who are ranked 11th in the world – two places ahead of England – have been given a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July, while Gareth Southgate’s side have a 4% chance, the same as Belgium and Portugal.
Five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany and Argentina.
So how far will England get?
England face Tunisia, Panama and Belgium in Group G and they have a 71% chance of reaching the knock-out rounds.
That calculation is based on one million simulations of the World Cup run by Gracenote, with points awarded for each match based on the probability of a win/draw/defeat based on the ranking of each side.
If they qualify from Group G, England will face either Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan from Group H in the last 16 and are predicted to have a 41% chance of progressing.
But their odds tumble in the quarter-finals – where they could face the likes of Germany or Brazil – with an 18% chance of reaching the semis and 9% chance of making the final.