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By Takunda Maodza
If Zimbabwe holds harmonised elections today, Zanu-PF Presidential candidate Cde Emmerson Mnangagwa, will garner 70 percent of the vote against MDC-Alliance leader Mr Nelson Chamisa’s 24 percent, an opinion poll by the Pan African Forum Limited has revealed.
The Kenya-based network of African scholars conducted the poll whose results released yesterday, show that President Mnangagwa is the people’s favourite and so is his Zanu-PF party.
The nationwide opinion poll had a total sample of 3 110 people, with a margin of error of +/-2percent.
“Emmerson Mnangagwa is the most preferred candidate to be the President of Zimbabwe,” said the Forum in its survey titled, “Zimbabwe Presidential Opinion Poll.”
The opinion poll, conducted between May 10 and 19, shows that President Mnangagwa is projected to get 70 percent, Mr Chamisa 24 percent and Dr Joice Mujuru of the National People’s Party 1.0 percent.
If MDC leader Professor Welshman Ncube was to participate in the Presidential election, he would only manage 1.0 percent, the survey showed.
Other presidential aspirants are also projected to manage just 1 percent, while 3.0 percent comprises of the undecided.
It revealed that 98 percent of registered voters are certain or somewhat certain that they will vote in the next general election.
This means that a shift of the vote arising from apathy is minimal and there is little room for a swing vote that might influence the outcome.
On political party support, the survey indicates that the majority of respondents (69 percent) support Zanu-PF.
MDC is second on 27 percent.
The MDC led by Professor Welshman Ncube is on 1 percent and so is Dr Joice Mujuru’s National People’s Party (NPP).
Other political parties’ support combined amounts to only 2 percent.
The little support enjoyed by MDC- led by Prof Ncube, NPP and other minority political parties suggests that coalition building will not change the poll results.
The survey results suggest that the MDC-T risks jeopardising its chances of a better showing by coalescing with political minors with no meaningful support base.
The survey further found that Zanu-PF has more female supporters than males – 74 percent and 64 percent, respectively.
The MDC has more male supporters than females – 30 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
This shows MDC-Alliance politics is not gendered.
It is a telling story of an opposition woman looking for a new home in Zanu-PF.
The shift could have been influenced by the ill-treatment of senior MDC-T members like Dr Thokozani Khupe and recently Ms Jessie Majome by Mr Chamisa while Prof Ncube shut the door of Mrs Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga recently, who did not take part in MDC primary elections.
“Top of the list of challenges that a Presidential candidate needs to address in the country includes unemployment, poverty and housing,” states the survey.
Others are fighting corruption, addressing land disputes, health care, youth empowerment, provision of electricity and attending to roads.
In its manifesto, which has now been reduced to six issues, Zanu-PF pledges job creation, food security, fighting corruption, affordable health care and education, youth skills and empowerment as well as national integrity and unity while the MDC-Alliance and Mr Chamisa prioritise fixing governance issues.
In its research methodology, the Forum used face to face interviews and a total sample of 3 110 distributed proportionate to voter register.
The Pan African Forum Ltd works closely with established regional bodies like ECOWAS from Western Africa, and SADC.